Bitcoin ETFs Show Weekly Net Inflows, But Monthly Trend Remains Negative

U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net inflows of approximately $301 million for the week ending Saturday, breaking a two-week streak of outflows. This weekly performance was achieved despite significant outflows on Thursday and Friday.

On Friday, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw outflows of $137.9 million. This followed a larger outflow of $635.6 million on Thursday, bringing the two-day total to approximately $773.5 million. Earlier in the week, from Monday through Wednesday, Bitcoin ETFs experienced a strong run of inflows totaling $1.07 billion, which helped to offset the later outflows and result in the net positive weekly figure.

Despite the weekly recovery, Bitcoin ETFs remain down about $314 million for the month of October. The cumulative net inflows for Bitcoin ETFs since their inception stand at $57.6 billion, with total net assets currently at $100.2 billion. For context, Bitcoin funds have seen $57.6 billion in cumulative net inflows since January 2024.

Other Crypto ETFs Show Mixed Performance

Ethereum ETFs saw a modest inflow of $4.4 million on Friday. However, the fund category lost approximately $221 million over the week and is down roughly $1.18 billion for October. Solana ETFs had no net flows on Friday, following an outflow of $8.9 million on Thursday. Solana ETFs are down about $68 million this month.

Market and Asset Price Movements

In terms of asset price movements, Bitcoin fell 1.1% over the 24 hours preceding Saturday, trading around $80,490. The cryptocurrency was down 1.2% for the week. Ethereum dropped 2.6% to approximately $2,344 on Saturday, while Solana fell 2.8% to about $101. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization slipped 1.2% to $2.79 trillion on Saturday.

Investor Sentiment and Outlook

Investor sentiment towards Bitcoin appears to be in a state of caution, with analysts describing the market as being in a “wait-and-see” mode. Prediction markets indicate a 43% chance of Bitcoin dropping to $77,500 before the end of October, with an 18% chance of it falling to $75,000. The odds of Bitcoin topping $87,500 have decreased to 10%.

For Solana, traders on Myriad give it a 51.6% chance of reaching $160 before falling to $40 before the month ends. Ethereum’s odds of hitting $3,000 before $1,500 remained at 61.3%.

The figures for ETF flows are closely watched as a gauge of investor sentiment, particularly as much of the money comes from institutions and financial advisors. However, it is important to note that the monthly performance for Bitcoin ETFs remains negative, and the market is subject to ongoing uncertainty. The exact timing and magnitude of future price movements for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana remain uncertain, as does the long-term impact of institutional and advisor flows on crypto ETFs. It is not certain whether Bitcoin ETFs will remain positive for the month of October.

Why This Matters

The performance of Bitcoin ETFs is a key indicator of investor sentiment towards cryptocurrencies. While weekly inflows offer a brief respite from recent outflows, the persistent negative monthly trend highlights ongoing market uncertainty.

Broader Context

Spot crypto ETFs hold the underlying asset, such as Bitcoin or Ethereum, and trade on stock exchanges like ordinary shares, giving investors exposure through a regular brokerage account.