Bitcoin Price Surge: Expert Eyes $400,000 Target Using Silver Rally

Bitcoin’s recent pullback has unnerved many investors, but Matt Crosby, director of research and analytics at LookIntoBitcoin, remains unfazed. He asserts that on-chain data indicates the bear market low is “essentially in,” and anticipates the next rally could be significantly faster than most expect.

Crosby’s primary evidence stems from a metric known as realized cap HODL waves. This indicator tracks the proportion of Bitcoin’s average purchase price influenced by investors who have held their coins for at least three months. When this share surpasses 80%, it signals that long-term holders have gained firm control, and short-term speculation has waned. According to Crosby, this threshold has consistently marked Bitcoin’s bear market lows, and the current data suggests it has done so once again.

Sellers Ran Out of Steam

Crosby characterized the recent market conditions as a “true dictionary definition of seller exhaustion.” Despite a series of negative news events impacting Bitcoin, the price continued to climb. He also noted a decrease in the supply held by long-term holders, which he interprets as new capital entering the market to make purchases.

He sees no indications of an overheated market. Instead, Crosby described a “healthy, very spot-driven rotation” of capital moving from stocks, bonds, and commodities into Bitcoin.

Why Bitcoin Can Move So Fast

Crosby highlighted Bitcoin’s rapid ascent from $64,000 to $84,000. He estimates that because long-term holders control a substantial portion of the supply and rarely sell, each new dollar entering the market increases Bitcoin’s market value by approximately $6.20. This suggests that even a modest reallocation of capital from sectors like the AI bubble or the bond market could trigger a sharp price increase.

Bitcoin as a Share of Global Capital

At its recent peak of around $87,000, Bitcoin represented roughly 0.32% of all invested global capital, a figure below its high of just under 0.5%. Crosby pointed out that as global capital continues to grow, Bitcoin’s potential market share remains significant.

Silver Comparison: $400,000

Crosby’s most ambitious projection draws a parallel between Bitcoin and silver. When silver reached its bottom in 2022, its market value stood at approximately $1 trillion. Bitcoin’s recent low was around $1.1 trillion.

Silver experienced a surge of about 593% over 3.4 years. Given Bitcoin’s 24/7 trading cycle, which typically leads to faster price movements, Crosby adjusted this timeline to approximately 2.3 years. If Bitcoin were to replicate silver’s performance over this condensed period, it could reach around $400,000.

He stated that Bitcoin has tracked silver’s trajectory with approximately 90% correlation to date. While acknowledging that this target is “potentially” optimistic and declining to provide an exact peak price, Crosby indicated that a global capital model suggests a valuation close to $390,000.