Bitcoin Rally May Spur Treasury Buying as Easy Money Era Ends

Corporate Bitcoin Buying Slows, Selectivity Expected to Rise

A significant slowdown in corporate Bitcoin treasury buying occurred in the third quarter, with analysts predicting a more discerning approach from investors in the future. While corporate purchases could rebound toward the end of 2026 and into 2027, driven by potential cryptocurrency rallies, companies are expected to be more selective about which treasury operations they finance.

Shift in Treasury Strategies

Ryan Rasmussen, head of research at Bitwise, noted a broad deceleration in Bitcoin treasury acquisitions during Q3. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings saw a net increase of only 1,666 BTC in the quarter, a stark contrast to the 83,901 BTC added in Q2, according to company filings. Public companies collectively added a net 5,617 BTC, down from 45,725 BTC in the preceding quarter, as reported by Rasmussen.

Rasmussen anticipates a re-acceleration of corporate Bitcoin purchases could begin as early as this year. Jag Kooner, head of derivatives at Bitfinex, suggested that renewed buying could emerge if treasury companies regain premiums on their Bitcoin holdings. This would enable them to issue shares and acquire more Bitcoin without diluting existing shareholders’ per-share Bitcoin exposure.

This strategy gained traction during the 2025 treasury boom, when companies could raise capital by issuing shares at a premium to the value of their Bitcoin assets. However, as these premiums diminished or vanished, issuing new shares became less appealing, curtailing companies’ capacity to fund further acquisitions.

“Shareholders have seen premiums collapse and some companies sell into weakness,” Kooner stated. “Investors are now pricing these businesses on funding costs, balance-sheet discipline and bitcoin per share.”

Bitwise’s October market report also highlighted a decrease in the number of Bitcoin treasuries in Q3, largely due to smaller companies exiting their Bitcoin treasury strategies. A dozen companies that entered the market during the 2025 boom sold their entire holdings, primarily to repay debt or return cash to shareholders after their stock premiums evaporated, Rasmussen explained.

Established Players to Lead Potential Resurgence

Kooner anticipates that established companies will be the first to attract capital if buying activity resumes. “Initially, capital would likely gravitate towards established players, which have the scale, the liquidity in their own securities and the track record investors now demand,” he said.

Rasmussen added that most of the largest corporate buyers, excluding Strategy, were operating businesses funding Bitcoin purchases from cash flow rather than issuing stock. This represents “a smaller source of demand but a healthier one,” he commented.

New Entrants Likely to Follow Rally

Meanwhile, Kooner cautioned that a broader resurgence of new treasury companies might only materialize once a rally is well underway. “A broad wave of new listings would most likely arrive late in a rally, once premiums have widened and that timing is itself a warning sign,” he warned.

Beyond Corporate Demand

Even without another corporate Bitcoin buying boom, Rasmussen believes other factors will drive a Bitcoin recovery, citing $6.4 billion in net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs in Q3. “Corporate purchases are one source of demand for bitcoin, but not the only source,” he asserted.

Kooner concurred that ETF demand could sustain the market for a period, but noted that some activity stems from basis trades that can unwind rapidly. “Without corporate buying, the market loses a price-insensitive bid and becomes more dependent on allocators who rebalance with macro conditions,” he observed.

Recent data indicates that ETF demand can be volatile. US spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced approximately $229 million in net outflows last week, marking their second consecutive week of net withdrawals, according to SoSoValue data.