Polymarket Trading Volume Surges 266% Amid Regulatory Scrutiny

Trading volume on Polymarket’s US exchange surged dramatically between June and October, driven by a boom in sports betting, even as the platform navigates increasing regulatory pressure.

The exchange saw its trading volume more than triple over that period, an increase of approximately 266%, according to data from analytics platform TickerTracker. Monthly volume climbed to $14.77 billion from $4.04 billion, with TickerTracker calculating volume based on the full payout value of contracts.

Polymarket reported to CNBC on Tuesday that its annualized revenue had surpassed $1.8 billion, a significant jump from over $1 billion in June.

Combo contracts, which allow users to combine multiple predictions into a single wager, were the dominant category in October, accounting for $8.6 billion, or 58.2%, of the total volume. Sports contracts followed, representing $4.57 billion, or 31%.

The platform’s US operations have experienced rapid expansion since the company broadened access in May. This growth occurs amid challenges from various states questioning whether federally regulated prediction markets can offer sports contracts without obtaining state gambling licenses. Polymarket began allowing US traders onto its separate exchange in late 2025, three years after a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) prompted it to halt US trading on its international platform.

Sports Betting Fuels Surge

The recent growth in trading volume coincides with a significant uptick in sports-related wagers, particularly during the FIFA World Cup, which ran from June 11 to July 19. Soccer contracts alone generated $1.81 billion in trading volume in June, a substantial increase from $85.4 million in May, according to TickerTracker.

Political Markets Also See Activity

Political markets also experienced heightened activity, coinciding with the US midterm elections. Election-related contracts on Polymarket’s US exchange generated $108.2 million in trading volume during the first 10 days of November, compared to $16.6 million for the entire month of September. Despite this surge, political markets constituted only 2.2% of the platform’s total trading volume in November.

Funding Round and Regulatory Hurdles

Polymarket is reportedly in the process of securing a $1 billion funding round, with a post-money valuation of $21 billion. Investment firm 1789 Capital, which counts Donald Trump Jr. as a partner, is said to be leading the round, with an expected contribution of around $300 million.

Despite these financial developments, Polymarket continues to face multifaceted regulatory scrutiny. The CFTC was reportedly investigating the platform earlier this year. Additionally, US Senators John Curtis and Adam Schiff separately urged the regulator in June to investigate allegations that the company compensated social media influencers to promote fabricated trades.

In response to these claims, Polymarket stated to Cointelegraph that it was “conducting a comprehensive audit of active promotional content to ensure it complies with our standards, as well as applicable regulatory and legal disclosure requirements.”

Polymarket is also among several prediction market operators facing legal challenges from US states. New York Attorney General Letitia James filed a lawsuit against the company in September, alleging that its sports-related event contracts violated state gambling laws. This lawsuit is part of a broader trend of state-level actions against prediction market platforms, including Kalshi, concerning whether their contracts fall under federal commodities regulation or state gambling laws.

The CFTC has asserted its authority to regulate prediction markets and has initiated legal actions involving 10 states to enforce state gambling laws against these platforms.

This jurisdictional dispute could potentially escalate to the US Supreme Court. In September, New Jersey officials petitioned the court to hear their case against Kalshi, seeking a ruling that could clarify which authorities hold jurisdiction over sports-related prediction markets.