Saylor's Bitcoin Cost Basis: A $75,000 Watchpoint

Bitcoin Holds Firm Above $80,000 Amidst ETF Outflows and Reduced Corporate Buying

Despite significant outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs and a notable reduction in purchases by Michael Saylor’s Strategy, Bitcoin has maintained its position above the $80,000 mark for an entire week. An analyst has been examining the data to identify the underlying forces supporting the cryptocurrency’s price.

Bitcoin’s Current Standing

Bitcoin faced resistance on Monday, peaking at $84,352 before declining to approximately $81,000 overnight. It has since rebounded to trade above $83,000. The cryptocurrency’s low for the past week, recorded on October 8, was $80,393. Bitcoin is currently down about 4% from its starting point at the beginning of the week. Last week, spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced outflows totaling $679 million, equivalent to roughly 8,000 BTC at current valuations.

Since their inception in January 2024, these ETFs have seen net inflows of $57 billion. Consequently, last week’s outflows represent only about 1.2% of this cumulative total. Rising bond yields may be a contributing factor to the selling pressure. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield closed at 5.31% last Monday, its highest point of the year, presenting investors with a more secure alternative.

The analyst drew a comparison to a more challenging period earlier this year. Between mid-May and early July, the ETFs endured eight consecutive weeks of outflows, amounting to approximately $8.3 billion – more than twelve times the figure from last week. During that time, Bitcoin’s price plummeted from around $80,700 to below $59,000, a decline exceeding 25%. The analyst noted that ETFs have recorded outflows on roughly half of all trading days this year, which he considers a normal occurrence.

Strategy Shifts Focus from Bitcoin to Stock Buybacks

Between October 5 and 11, Strategy purchased only 250 BTC for $21.5 million, marking its smallest Bitcoin acquisition of 2026. In the same week, the company allocated $192.4 million to repurchasing its own STRC preferred shares, nearly nine times the amount invested in Bitcoin.

The company currently holds 848,250 BTC, acquired at an average cost of $75,444.

Identifying the Sellers

A significant portion of the selling pressure appears to have originated from leveraged traders. On the Binance exchange, open interest in Bitcoin futures decreased from approximately 97,400 BTC to around 92,400 BTC over the week, a drop of roughly 5%. Funding rates have fallen to near zero, indicating that excess leverage has been unwound from the market.

However, not all data points to a clear sell-off. Approximately 25,000 BTC was moved onto exchanges on October 6 alone, with an additional net inflow of 5,300 BTC between October 8 and 11. The movement of coins to exchanges can often signal that holders are preparing to sell.

Who is Still Buying?

The analyst identified two primary forces sustaining Bitcoin’s price. The first is the activity of spot buyers. On Binance, the proportion of trading volume attributed to aggressive buyers was around 49% on October 7 and 8. From October 9 onwards, this figure shifted, reaching 55.6%, then 52.7%, and subsequently 56.3%. Buyers entered the market shortly after the weekly low, primarily in the spot market rather than through futures.

The second, and arguably more crucial, factor is the behavior of long-term holders. Approximately 63% of all Bitcoin has remained unmoved for over a year. “Those coins are not for sale at $83K, and they were not for sale at $80K either,” the analyst stated. When ETFs sell 8,000 BTC into a market where the majority of supply is held by these long-term investors, the impact on price is consequently limited.

The analyst also highlighted the “true market mean,” which represents the average cost basis of active investors, at approximately $79,250. Last week’s low briefly dipped below this level before buyers stepped in.

Future Price Outlook

The analyst foresees two potential price trajectories, which he considers to be of roughly equal probability.

A decisive break above the $86,600 level would strengthen the likelihood of a bullish scenario.

The Significance of the $75,000 Level

The analyst’s identified support zone extends from $63,326 to $74,840. He emphasized that this is not a price target but rather a safety net. The upper boundary of this zone closely aligns with two key cost basis levels.

At this juncture, both the largest corporate Bitcoin holder and the average new buyer would reach their breakeven point. Whether these entities choose to hold or begin selling at this level could be a decisive factor in Bitcoin’s next significant price movement. The analyst indicated that should a deeper correction occur, the area around $75,000 would be where he would likely initiate new purchases.