Uptober Begins: Can Bitcoin Deliver?

Bitcoin Eyes “Uptober” Amidst Shifting Market Dynamics

October, a month historically known as “Uptober” in cryptocurrency circles for its strong market performance, arrives on the heels of a “Red September” that ultimately proved less dire than anticipated. The question on many investors’ minds is how Bitcoin will perform in this traditionally bullish period.

Bitcoin is beginning October trading at $83,823, a modest 0.28% increase on the day. The preceding month, September, had been on track to be its best on record until the final days.

With one trading day remaining in September, Bitcoin had posted a 7.33% gain, narrowly surpassing its previous September record of 7.29% set in 2024. However, a late-month correction saw the cryptocurrency close September with a 6.33% gain. While still a positive outcome and a defiance of the “Red September” curse, it fell short of a historical peak performance.

Now, the focus shifts to “Uptober.” Historically, since 2013, October has delivered an average return of 19.92% for crypto investors, with a median return of 14.71%, according to data from CoinGlass.

Last year, however, deviated from this trend. October 2025 closed with a 3.69% loss, marking only the third red October since 2013. This year’s outlook is being shaped by a complex macroeconomic landscape.

The Federal Reserve implemented a 25-basis-point interest rate hike on September 16, bringing the federal funds rate to a range of 3.75% to 4%. This was the first increase since July 2023 and was met with a unanimous vote. Rising interest rates typically present a challenge for assets like Bitcoin, as the availability of “cheap money” diminishes, prompting investors to favor safer havens such as U.S. Treasuries.

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh noted that inflation “remains elevated,” and the Fed’s median projection indicates one additional 25-basis-point hike is possible this year. The next Federal Reserve decision is scheduled for October 28.

Bond yields have reacted to this monetary tightening. The 10-year Treasury note concluded September at 5.289%, and the 30-year Treasury bond at 5.632%, both representing 52-week highs. As Bitcoin does not offer a yield, rising Treasury rates are often viewed by traders as direct competition.

The stock market has also shown signs of strain following the rate hike. Both the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted monthly losses in September as bond yields climbed. However, August’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data came in cooler than expected, registering 3.4% year-over-year compared to the forecasted 3.7%, with core PCE at 3.0% against an expected 3.3%.

In the realm of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), approximately $3.08 billion in inflows were recorded over nine consecutive days leading up to September 29. This streak ended on September 30 with net outflows of $148.69 million, according to Decrypt’s Bitcoin ETF tracker. Total net assets for Bitcoin ETFs currently exceed $101 billion, though figures may vary slightly depending on the data source.

The week of September 21 saw inflows of roughly $2.4 billion, including a single day with $999 million in inflows. The current week, as of this report, has experienced net outflows totaling $51.42 million.

On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are assigning a 90% probability to Bitcoin reaching a high of $85,000. The most conservative prediction suggests BTC will remain relatively flat. Myriad’s odds indicate a 70% chance of Bitcoin hitting $87,500.

In a separate market assessment, traders are giving only a 7% probability that Bitcoin will establish a new all-time high before 2027, a move of approximately 50% from current levels, which is currently considered highly improbable.

Today’s daily candlestick opened at $83,588.27 and has traded between $83,134.08 and $84,360.88. The price is currently at $83,823.14, within a pullback from the swing high of $87,354.33, which followed a bounce from the $74,977.57 low.

Technical indicators suggest a strong trend is in play. The Average Directional Index (ADX), which measures trend strength irrespective of direction, stands at 41.5, well above the 25 threshold that confirms a significant trend. The positive directional line is also positioned above the negative one, indicating that buyers are currently driving the market momentum.

Exponential moving averages (EMAs), which give more weight to recent prices, show the 50-day EMA above the 200-day EMA, signaling an upward short-term trend.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum oscillator ranging from 0 to 100, is at 61.8. This level indicates bullish sentiment without reaching the 70 mark, which typically signals overbought conditions and potential profit-taking. The Squeeze Momentum Indicator is “off,” suggesting that volatility compression has already been released, and Bollinger Bands, which track price deviation from its average, are expanding.

Looking ahead, the calendar for October is filled with potential catalysts. Key economic events include the September jobs report on October 2, FOMC minutes on October 7, Consumer Price Index (CPI) data on October 14, and the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on October 28. Myriad’s October market predictions will close on October 31 at 11:59 p.m. ET.