XRP Poised for $1 Retest Ahead of Major Rally: Analyst

XRP Faces Potential Pullback to $1, Analysts Warn

XRP concluded last week’s trading session below its 20-week moving average, prompting analyst ChartNerd to suggest in a recent X video that a retreat toward the $1 mark is now a tangible possibility.

Such a retest could potentially establish a double bottom formation, a scenario the analyst likens to the market dynamics observed in 2022. However, a sustained recovery above $1.33 would diminish the likelihood of this bearish outlook.

At the time of this report, XRP was trading at $1.33 on CoinGecko, having seen a 2% increase in the past 24 hours. Despite this short-term gain, the cryptocurrency experienced a nearly 3% decline over the last week and a 6% drop in the past 30 days. Year-over-year, XRP is down 45%, placing it 63% below its all-time high of $3.65.

The weekly chart provides further context. During the week of September 14, XRP briefly dipped below its 20-week exponential moving average (EMA), a trend line derived from recent weekly closing prices. However, it ultimately closed above this level and advanced towards the 50-week EMA, which was situated near $1.50. This resistance level has capped price movements for nine to ten weeks, following a roughly 70% rally from a low of $0.98 to $1.70. The subsequent pullback has amounted to approximately 25%.

Regarding the $1.30 area, the analyst commented that “the bulls have a lifeline here.” A successful reclaim and hold of $1.33 could pave the way for a move towards $1.50, where a liquidity cluster—a zone characterized by a high concentration of leveraged trades—lies near $1.55. Clearing this range could potentially signal an upward trajectory towards $1.80 to $2.

Conversely, the analyst cautioned that if weekly closes continue to fall below the 20-week moving average, it “opens the door for a deeper retrace towards $1,” an area that has historically seen the largest cluster of leveraged positions since the market bottom.

The monthly Gaussian Channel, an indicator that delineates bands around long-term price trends, offers a historical perspective. Following previous cycle peaks, XRP has historically lost its upper band and retreated to the middle band, which is currently positioned at $0.98. In the current cycle, the upper band at $1.54 has acted as resistance for three months, and XRP has yet to test the middle line.

ChartNerd highlighted that in 2022, XRP experienced a bottom, rallied 90% to the 50-week EMA, and then fell back to its lows within one to two weeks of losing the 20-week moving average. The analyst perceives a similar pattern unfolding now, although earlier price targets of $0.90 to $0.70 did not materialize. The analyst concluded with a candid admission: “I do not know what’s going to happen.”

On the XRP/BTC three-month chart, past periods of outperformance against Bitcoin have originated from lower demand zones, while the pair has encountered the same horizontal resistance for six years. The analyst anticipates that Bitcoin will command greater market attention in 2027.

Meanwhile, exchange data suggests a shift in investor behavior, though not necessarily a definitive price direction. According to CryptoQuant data, as previously reported by CryptoPotato, Binance withdrawals of XRP amounts under 10,000 coins increased from 3% to 19.7% of total outflow value between September 30 and October 20, marking the highest share since October 2024. Reserves across three major exchanges saw a net increase of 120 million XRP, and spot XRP ETFs recorded zero net inflows on Monday.